Hi Raul
You need a forecasting lesson!
I understand that you are using model 56 for forecast run and not happy with what it pics.
While model 56 is a good way to guide you in your "initial" run, it is not always the best model to use for following reasons:
1. By nature of the model, system runs through every model and select the best fit. This kills performance , if you run in background and regularly.
2. Not all products have the same lifecycle stage and so it is practically incorrect to use same model.
I would use the model 56 to see what the system suggests, start with that recommendation, then understand where you product is in the product life cycle, launch, growth, maturity or decline. Maintain a lifecycle profile for the products so that the system considers these in forecast run.
Some times it is quite obvious what method has to be used, if you know a growing product or declining or a cyclical ( where you can clearly see the cycle periods), then use those directly.
One other good model to use is moving average model but be careful to specify your moving average periods.
If there are too many gaps, you need to use something like a croston method.
If you have a new product with no history but can correlate to an existing product, you may use a like profile
If you have a new product that does not correlate to any existing product with history, that is the most complicated to work with! APO can help less in that.
Also make use of the error comparison in forecasting models, usually MAPE or WMAPE is regarded a good metric. Lowest error is the better model.